As Ademola Adeleke positions himself for another term as governor in Osun State, he exudes confidence that his achievements and popularity will override federal interference and deliver victory in the 2026 polls. 

The Context:

Adeleke, speaking after screening by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) state governorship panel, declared that defeating an incumbent previously and now serving as governor gives him unbeaten momentum. He asserted, “If I could defeat an incumbent, and now that I’m the governor, within two years, it’s unprecedented what we have achieved. I’m so confident that nobody can beat us there.” 

He also claimed broad-based appeal across party lines - including among members of the rival All Progressives Congress (APC) - citing that wherever he goes, people call him “Imole” (light). 

He further stated that he is not worried about federal influence in the election, asserting his popularity will carry the vote. 

The Analysis: What Most People Are Missing

1. Confidence as message and strategy. Adeleke’s public optimism is itself a tactical play. By projecting inevitability, he attempts to shape perceptions among voters, party operatives and rivals that his re-election is a foregone conclusion. That can influence morale, party discipline and campaign optics.

2. Popularity vs. structural challenges. While he emphasizes popularity and goodwill, the true test will hinge on governance delivery and mobilisation. Goodwill can erode if public expectations aren’t met. His claim of “unprecedented” achievement needs to translate into measurable outcomes for voters.

3. Federal vs. state dynamics. His assertion that federal might will not interfere is bold, given Nigeria’s history of centre-state tensions and incumbent management by federal actors. Success will depend on his campaign’s ability to insulate itself from national-level influences, ensure local party cohesion and maintain ground-level voter engagement.

4. Cross-party appeal caveat. While he speaks of friends even in the APC, such claims are often rhetorical. The competitive terrain in Osun means that cross-party allegiances are fluid and contingent. He will need tangible alliances, and not just rhetorical goodwill, to secure his position.

The Implications:

• For the PDP in Osun: Adeleke’s confidence can galvanise the party apparatus, but also places pressure on it to deliver a strong organisational campaign. Disorganisation or internal dissent could undermine the effort.

• For the APC and opposition forces: His posture sets the tone — challenge will come not only on policy but on narrative: can opponents undercut the “Imole” branding and shift the discourse to delivery and governance gaps?

• For governance accountability: Publicly claiming popularity and inevitability means that voters will watch closely. A mismatch between promise and delivery could fuel backlash in future elections.

• For Nigerian state-level politics: This is another example of how governors are framing re-election not just as continuation but as vindication of their mandate. That raises the stakes for campaign strategy, performance monitoring and voter engagement in 2026.

Takeaway / Quote:

The real story isn’t just that Adeleke says he’ll win; it’s whether his performance and campaign machinery will match the confidence he projects.

As he put it, “If you are not performing, that’s when you’ll be scared. When you have your people behind you, you don’t have to fear.”