A fragile ceasefire between Gaza Strip and Israel, brokered by the United States Department of State, appears to be under severe strain as humanitarian aid remains sharply restricted while attacks continue to pepper the enclave. According to the Gaza Government Media Office, only 24 percent of the trucks that were agreed under the accord have been allowed entry since the truce came into effect on 10 October. 

Between 10 October and 31 October, just 3,203 aid and commercial trucks entered the territory - an average of 145 per day - far below the 600 per day target set in the agreement. 

Aid Access & Humanitarian Conditions

Civilians in Gaza continue to face shortages of food, water, fuel, and medical supplies as a result of restricted access. The aid bottleneck has been compounded by ongoing Israeli military operations, which are being viewed by many aid organisations as jeopardising the truce’s viability. 

The Gaza Government Media Office issued a statement attributing the worsening humanitarian conditions to “the Israeli occupation’s obstruction of aid and commercial trucks” and holding Israel “fully responsible” for the deteriorating situation faced by more than 2.4 million people in the enclave. 

Continuation of Military Action

Despite the ceasefire being in place, Israeli strikes have not ceased. This week marks the fifth consecutive day of air-operations in Gaza following the death of an Israeli soldier, according to Al Jazeera’s live blog. 

The combination of ongoing military action and suffocating access restrictions increases the risk that the ceasefire may collapse, returning the conflict to full-scale hostilities.

Regional and International Implications

The current trajectory poses heavy diplomatic and humanitarian stakes:

• Regional actors such as Egypt and Qatar, historically involved in mediating the truce, may face mounting pressure to secure an increase in aid flows.

• The international community, including the United Nations and aid agencies, have long warned that obstructed access constitutes collective punishment, a violation of international humanitarian law. For example, a 2025 report described the blockade’s effects in northern Gaza as tantamount to “conditions calculated to bring about the destruction of the group in whole or part”. 

• The way forward hinges on whether Israel honours its commitment to allow aid at scale and whether Hamas or other actors commit to maintaining the ceasefire terms. Any collapse could spark a humanitarian escalation and further destabilise the region.

What to Monitor

Key developments in the next days will include:

• Whether the daily number of aid trucks rises markedly - specifically, how close it comes to the 600 per day benchmark.

• Responses from Israel’s government regarding the accusations of obstruction and what steps it will take to restore aid flows.

• Humanitarian agencies reporting new data on supply levels, civilian displacement, and the broader welfare of the enclave’s population.

• Whether Israeli strikes continue or intensify, and how this will impact the ceasefire’s durability.

The latest figures show that the reality on the ground in Gaza bears few hallmarks of a robust or sustainable ceasefire. With only one-quarter of required aid entering and military operations still underway, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly and global pressure for resolution is mounting. The coming days will determine whether the truce stabilises - or whether the war reignites with full force.