After nearly three decades of delay, the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea - the largest untapped mining project on Earth - has finally begun operations. But beyond its staggering $23 billion scale, the mine’s debut marks something bigger: a strategic victory for China in the global race for mineral dominance.

Simandou’s vast reserves, estimated at over 2.4 billion tonnes of high-grade iron ore, have the potential to reshape global supply chains long dominated by Australia and Brazil — two countries that have been central to Western industrial ecosystems for decades.

“This is not just a mine — it’s a geopolitical instrument,” said Daniel Litvin, founder of Critical Resource, a consultancy advising on resource governance. “For China, Simandou is leverage.”

A Project Decades in the Making

Nestled in Guinea’s remote southeast, the Simandou project has been a byword for delays, corruption scandals, and political infighting since the 1990s. It was first discovered by Rio Tinto, later entangled in legal disputes, and repeatedly stalled by regime changes in Conakry.

But Beijing’s persistence has paid off. Through a consortium led by Chinalco and Baowu Steel Group, China now controls a majority of the project’s output and financing. The development includes 600 km of railway cutting through Guinea’s mountainous interior and a new deep-water port at Matakong, both built by Chinese state contractors.

“It’s a logistical empire project,” said Aissatou Diallo, an economist at the University of Conakry. “Guinea is getting infrastructure, China is getting influence.”

The Economic and Strategic Payoff

For Beijing, Simandou is about more than securing raw materials — it’s about strategic independence. China imports nearly 70% of its iron ore from Australia, leaving it vulnerable to diplomatic tensions that have repeatedly strained trade.

Simandou’s launch will gradually reduce that dependency. Analysts project that, once fully operational by 2028, the mine could supply up to 10% of China’s annual iron ore demand, giving Beijing unprecedented leverage in steel pricing and supply negotiations.

“Simandou allows China to set its own terms in a market long dictated by Western producers,” said Julian Kettle, vice-chair of metals at Wood Mackenzie.

Meanwhile, Guinea — one of the world’s poorest nations — stands to benefit from royalties and export revenues that could exceed $2 billion annually, though critics warn that governance risks remain high.

Western Miners on the Defensive

For global mining giants like Rio Tinto and BHP, China’s breakthrough in Guinea represents both competition and loss. Rio Tinto retains a stake in the western blocks of Simandou but is now a minority voice in a project it once discovered and dominated.

Western governments, already anxious about China’s grip on rare earths and critical minerals, view Simandou’s launch as part of a broader pattern of resource consolidation.

“China’s state-led approach has succeeded where Western capital hesitated,” said Paul Gait, mining analyst at Bernstein. “It’s a reminder that strategic patience pays off.”

The U.S. and EU have been pushing for alternative supply routes under the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) — a coalition aimed at diversifying access to key industrial metals. But in the case of Simandou, Beijing moved faster, financing and constructing infrastructure in exchange for long-term offtake agreements.

Guinea’s Gamble

President Mamadi Doumbouya, who seized power in a 2021 military coup, has made Simandou a centerpiece of his government’s legitimacy. His administration renegotiated earlier contracts to ensure a joint-venture structure that splits ownership between Guinea’s state mining company and Chinese investors.

Supporters call it a pragmatic deal for a country in need of jobs and infrastructure. Critics fear it could cement economic dependency on Beijing, echoing patterns seen in other African megaprojects.

“Guinea may be exporting ore, but it’s importing influence,” said Khalifa Barry, an opposition lawmaker in Conakry. “The question is whether we’ll still own our resources ten years from now.”

A Shift in Global Iron Ore Power

Simandou’s output — with an average iron content of 66%, among the purest in the world — could disrupt global pricing structures and undercut established suppliers. Analysts say it may trigger a rebalancing of the global iron ore market, where Australia’s Pilbara and Brazil’s Carajás mines have historically dictated supply.

In practical terms, the mine’s success strengthens China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) portfolio while providing a blueprint for how Beijing might approach critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and copper in Africa and beyond.

“Simandou is China’s mineral diplomacy in its purest form,” said Helena Legarda, senior analyst at MERICS. “Strategic investment masked as development aid.”

The Takeaway

After decades of uncertainty, Guinea’s red earth has finally turned to gold for Beijing. For China, Simandou secures a key industrial resource, reinforces its geopolitical reach in West Africa, and delivers another symbolic blow to Western mining dominance.

For Guinea, the rewards are tangible but fragile — a test of whether resource wealth can translate into lasting national prosperity, or become another chapter in the continent’s long struggle with extractive dependency.

“The world’s biggest mine has opened,” Diallo said. “But who will really own its future — Guinea or China?”