The United States could lose $3.4 billion in economic activity and 40,000 jobs in the 2026-27 academic year as international student enrolment declines, according to a joint analysis by NAFSA and education technology firm JB.
The analysis projects a 9.5% fall in overall international student enrolment, reducing the total number of students from 1.16 million in 2025-26 to about 1.05 million.
It says tighter regulations and administrative delays are increasingly pushing prospective students towards competing higher education markets.
The projections draw on the Institute of International Education’s Spring 2026 Snapshot, which surveyed 585 higher education institutions.
International student enrolment had recovered after the pandemic, rising from a low of 914,000 to nearly 1.18 million in 2024-25. The latest projected decline could reverse part of that recovery.
During the 2023-24 academic year, international students contributed a record $43.8 billion to the US economy and supported more than 378,000 domestic jobs through tuition payments and spending on housing, food, transport and other services.
The expected losses will vary across states. California faces the largest projected shortfall at $499.6 million, followed by New York at $470.3 million.
Massachusetts and Michigan could each lose about $284 million, while Texas is projected to lose $199.1 million.
The report links the decline to several policy and operational changes. An executive order issued in December 2025 imposed broad entry restrictions on nationals of 39 countries without exemptions for student or exchange visitor visas.
Visa processing delays also increased during the summer after the US Department of State prioritised appointments for FIFA World Cup 2026 ticket holders during the period typically used for student visa applications.
Other changes include a four-year cap on visa durations from September 15 and proposed reforms to the Optional Practical Training programme, which provides temporary work opportunities for graduates.
Fanta Aw, NAFSA’s executive director and chief executive, said the decline could weaken the talent base supporting research, innovation and high-tech industries.
NAFSA is urging the US administration to prioritise student visa interviews, exempt students from active travel bans and preserve the current structure of the Optional Practical Training programme.
