Earlier adjustments after Week 1 showed Allen improving from +600 to +500, while Williams jumped from +1200 to +600. By Sunday night the market tightened further in Allen's favor, a rapid move that places him clear of the other quarterbacks listed by odds makers.
The rest of the field sits well behind Allen. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is listed at +800. Joe Burrow of the Bengals, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes are tied at +850. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott follows at +1400. Those figures frame the current hierarchy if all players remain healthy for the season.
Williams' status is the critical uncertainty. Once more information emerges about his hamstring, the expectation is he would return to the board, but significant missed time would likely eliminate his chance at the league's top individual award. Historical precedent underlines that injury absences have cost MVP candidacies: in a 16-game season the eventual winner has missed as many as three games, a mark set by Joe Montana in 1989, and in a 14-game schedule the maximum was two games, shared by Larry Brown in 1972 and Paul Hornung in 1961.
Markets will track both Allen's continued play and Williams' recovery. If Williams returns quickly he could re-enter the conversation, but absent a quick comeback the betting market and narrative for MVP productivity will continue to consolidate around Allen and the other healthy starters listed at longer odds.
