George Santos loses access to the Kalshi prediction market and must pay $71,356 after the platform concluded he traded on his own attendance at this year’s State of the Union address and attempted to manipulate contract prices.
Kalshi said the former New York congressman, who served from January 2023 until his expulsion later that year, made more than $17,000 betting on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s address in February. In the weeks before the speech, the company alleges Santos made public statements to influence the price of Yes and No contracts, and that “some of these included false or misleading statements,” language Kalshi used in announcing its disciplinary action on Monday.
Kalshi recounted one X post in which Santos wrote, “I’m going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys.” On the day of the speech Santos posted he was watching from the airport. Santos answered Kalshi’s move with an X post directed at the platform, writing, “Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for,” followed by a kiss mark emoji.
The ban and fine add to regulatory and reputational penalties Santos already faces. In July the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered him to pay $35,000 for trading on State of the Union attendance and barred him from trading for three years; his lawyer said he settled without admitting the CFTC’s findings. In June Polymarket, a rival prediction market, ended a paid relationship with Santos while federal investigators probed the trades.
Kalshi said it also reached settlements with three political candidates who traded on contracts tied to their own races, imposing three-year bans and fines. Two were unsuccessful gubernatorial candidates in California and Maine. The third, Laurie Buckhout, is the Republican nominee in North Carolina’s 1st district and will face Democratic Rep. Don Davis; Kalshi said Buckhout must pay just under $2,600. Buckhout called it a “dumb mistake” and said, “I bet on myself. Literally. ... Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”
Santos’s tenure in Congress was already shadowed by ethics and criminal findings. A House Ethics Committee report cited “substantial evidence of wrongdoing,” and he was sentenced to 87 months for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft before President Trump commuted that sentence last fall.
Kalshi described the Santos case as different from the three candidate settlements, saying those traders cooperated with its investigation while Santos did not. The platform’s decision underscores active enforcement by private prediction markets and regulators over trading tied to political events and personal actions.
