Voters and energy consumers are the immediate casualties of the president's timetable: President Donald Trump said he expects the conflict with Iran to end only after the 3 November midterm elections, and he predicted oil prices will not decline until then. He made the comments as he travelled to Texas for the Republican party's midterm convention, tying the conflict's duration directly to the electoral calendar.
Trump accused Tehran of trying to influence the vote, saying Iran was "desperate to try and affect the election, so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there" and that a weaker US Congress would allow Tehran to pursue a nuclear weapon. He provided no evidence for that assertion. Iran has repeatedly denied it is seeking nuclear weapons.
The remarks came as fighting across the Middle East has intensified and energy markets have reacted. Oil rose to $100 a barrel, the first time since July, and US diesel recently hit an all-time high. US officials attribute some of the higher fuel costs to attacks on oil facilities and shipping that have disrupted supplies and fed through to consumer prices.
Military activity in the region has escalated in recent days. The US military said it had attacked five oil tankers with ties to Iran. Iranian state media reported retaliatory strikes on two US Navy destroyers and eight oil tankers, which it said caused "heavy damage." Iran-linked Houthi forces in Yemen also launched attacks on Saudi Arabia that sparked fires at oil facilities. The renewed fighting followed the formal expiry last month of a 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran; the conflict is now in its seventh month.
Trump signalled talks with Iran remain a possibility but added, "it's not something we're looking at." He also repeated an earlier prediction, since contradicted, that the war would be brief, saying the price of oil would tumble "as soon as we win the war with Iran." His handling of the conflict has seen declining approval ratings and has drawn pressure from members of his own party, including core supporters, to end the fighting ahead of November.
What happens next is calendrical: the midterm elections on 3 November will decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress and could reshape how lawmakers oversee the war. Until then, the president has signalled he expects campaign timing to influence both the duration of US military operations and the near-term trajectory of energy prices.
