The move tracks wholesale oil. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was near $70 a barrel before the conflict, surged above $120 during intense fighting, fell back to about $70 after a June framework deal, then climbed again beyond $100 after peace talks collapsed. It is now around $94 a barrel. Analysts calculate that each $10 rise in the oil price, equivalent to £7.44, typically adds roughly 7p a litre to pump prices.
Retail fuel prices reflect more than crude alone, they also follow demand, refining capacity and the slow rhythm of shipping and processing. Because it takes time for wholesale changes to filter through, movements on international markets usually take about a fortnight to appear at the pumps.
Diesel remains below its wartime peak, at 184.99p per litre versus the 191.54p a litre high seen on 15 April. Both fuels are still cheaper than the extreme levels seen after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when petrol hit 191.5p and diesel reached 199p. In early July the RAC recorded a trough, with petrol at 150.59p and diesel at 164.52p, before recent rises.
Simon Williams, the RAC's head of policy, said drivers will "almost certainly start paying noticeably more at the pumps in the coming weeks". Fuel retailers have rejected claims they are exploiting the crisis and the markets regulator says it has not seen evidence that retailers changed pricing strategies to take advantage of the conflict. A government scheme called Fuel Finder allows drivers to compare station prices, and the AA's head of policy, Luke Bosdet, said the organisation attributed the rapid price fall in July in part to that transparency.
Policy has shifted to ease the burden on motorists. In May the then prime minister Sir Keir Starmer said a planned 5p rise in fuel duty due in September would be postponed until the end of December because of the conflict. With Brent remaining elevated, the price of filling up is likely to stay under upward pressure until wholesale markets calm.
