Australia now faces the prospect of not reaching the Albanese government’s 82% renewables projection for 2030, because planned projects and the financing needed to build them are not advancing quickly enough. Renewables already supply about half of electricity on the national main grid, but experts say the next stage requires an unprecedented acceleration of wind and solar capacity in a short period.
The Story in Pictures
University of New South Wales energy systems researcher Dr Dylan McConnell, using Australian Energy Market Operator data, calculates the scale of the gap. He says an additional 8.5GW of wind and 9.5GW of solar must be planned and built before 2030, a combined requirement that would in capacity terms add more than the nation’s existing wind resources. “It’s an extremely challenging task. The rate of renewable energy rollout that is now required to hit that target is unbelievable,” McConnell says.
Analysts differ over whether the current pipeline can close that divide. Tristan Edis, director of analysis and advisory at Green Energy Markets, notes there is capacity already approved under planning and environmental rules, but only about 12% of what is needed is under construction. He rejects assessments that environmental approvals are the main obstacle. “That’s not the predominant reason why so little is managing to get committed to construction,” Edis says. “The choke point is that projects aren’t able to find a customer that’s prepared to sign on to a long-term power purchase agreement such that they can get the project financed.”
The federal capacity investment scheme, widened in 2023 and again in 2025 to include renewables as well as dispatchable capacity and to reach a total of 40GW, has run eight tender rounds and underwritten 115 projects, including 25.5GW of wind and solar. Despite that, analysis by Green Energy Markets and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis finds only about 11% of the underwritten wind and solar farms have reached construction or operation.
Industry leaders say policy and market uncertainty are discouraging private capital. Louisa Kinnear, chief executive of the Australian Energy Council, calls for “durable and stable policy settings” and clearer signals on coal exit timing so businesses can plan for reliability and security. Two large thermal plants, Yallourn in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley and Eraring in the Hunter Valley, are scheduled to close before 2030, and previous government moves to delay closures have left investors wary.
State politics are also creating friction. Victoria has opened a review of the Western Renewables Link shortly after removing a renewable energy zone, and an election in November raises the prospect of further reversals. Queensland is progressing a major datacentre while resisting federal pressure to power such facilities with renewables. Chris O’Keefe, national spokesperson for the Clean Energy Council, says recent state-level changes “haven’t helped” and highlights proposals to cancel transmission projects such as VNI West.
With a technical need for roughly 18GW of new wind and solar and a thin construction pipeline, the immediate challenge is turning approved projects into financed builds. Achieving that will require stronger commercial demand for long-term power purchase agreements, firmer policy signals on coal closures, and steady decisions on transmission from state and federal governments to unlock the scale of investment the grid must absorb before 2030.
