The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Gabon's public debt will increase to 94.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2027, up from 70.9% in 2024.
According to IMF staff estimates based on data available through April 2, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 78.9% in 2025 and 86.1% in 2026 before reaching 94.3% the following year.
The projected increase contrasts with the broader trend across sub-Saharan Africa, where the median public debt ratio declined to 53.1% of GDP in 2025 from 57.2% in 2024, supported by economic growth, exchange rate movements and debt restructuring. Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia also made progress on debt restructuring during the period, while the region's median budget deficit narrowed to 3% of GDP.
The IMF attributed Gabon's rising debt largely to widening fiscal deficits. The country's budget deficit, including grants, expanded to 8.5% of GDP in 2025 from 3.3% in 2024 and is projected to reach 10% in 2026 and 11.2% in 2027.
The fund said sustained primary deficits continue to increase the country's debt burden even before interest costs are taken into account.
According to the IMF, 21 countries in sub-Saharan Africa are currently running fiscal deficits above levels required to stabilise debt. More than one-third are either at high risk of debt distress or already in debt distress.
The IMF warned that delaying fiscal adjustments would require larger spending cuts or revenue measures in the future and noted that about one-third of countries in the region face multiple fiscal, monetary, financial or external pressures.
For oil-producing economies such as Gabon, the IMF recommended treating higher oil revenues as temporary and using them to clear arrears, reduce expensive domestic debt and rebuild fiscal and foreign exchange buffers. It also recommended fiscal rules that limit spending increases during commodity booms while protecting investment in health, education, water and energy services.
The debt outlook follows Gabon's successful issuance of a $920 million Eurobond in late July 2026.
The seven-year bond carries a 9.375% annual coupon and matures in 2033 with a three-year grace period on principal repayments.
According to the government, the proceeds will be used to finance public infrastructure projects, clear external commercial obligations and settle multilateral arrears.
Gabon's revised 2026 budget also authorises up to $1.5 billion in foreign borrowing while reducing domestic revenue forecasts by 22%. Economic growth projections for 2026 have also been revised downward from 6.5% to 4.0%.
Moody's currently assigns Gabon a Caa2 credit rating with a negative outlook, citing structural financing constraints, elevated borrowing costs and potential liabilities arising from ongoing public debt audits.
