Kenya gains the biggest M&A prize in Africa, a shift that reorders where capital is flowing on the continent. DealMakers Africa reports that Kenyan transaction value surged 670.5 percent year-on-year to $1.44 billion in the first half of 2026, lifting the country above Nigeria in the rankings. The jump moved Kenya up five places from H1 2025 and signals larger, higher-value transactions are now finding East Africa.
The change matters because it highlights a reallocation of corporate capital. Investors appear willing to commit bigger sums in Kenya, while Nigeria’s market tells a different story. Nigerian deal volume actually rose to 39 transactions in H1 2026 from 31 a year earlier, but total deal value slid to the weakest first-half level in nearly a decade. Dealmakers point to global risk aversion, foreign exchange volatility, election uncertainty, valuation gaps and a new tax regime as constraints on larger, transformational deals.
South Africa’s economy illustrates the continent’s vulnerability to external shocks. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed fuel import bills sharply higher, costing South African fuel importers at least R56 billion ($3.5 billion) since the Middle East conflict began in February. That added cost feeds into inflation, exchange-rate pressure and corporate margins, complicating monetary and fiscal responses.
Meanwhile, the banking sector is redeploying capital across borders. The Central Bank of Kenya approved Nedbank Group’s acquisition of a 66 percent stake in NCBA Group on August 28, 2026, under Section 13(4) of the Banking Act. The approval clears a key regulatory hurdle, with the transaction to take effect once the parties complete the deal according to their agreement. The move underscores growing South African lender interest in East Africa as a growth corridor.
Domestic sentiment in Kenya is also improving. The Central Bank of Kenya’s latest survey found 44.4 percent of CEOs expected faster company growth in July, up from 38.9 percent in May, the first increase after four consecutive declines. Rising corporate confidence could support investment and hiring, reinforcing Kenya’s appeal to larger transactions.
Other developments include a ₦50 billion allocation from EFCC recoveries to NELFUND to keep 1.6 million students in school, and a reported 4.43 percent GDP growth figure welcomed by President Tinubu. Taken together, the data points mark a continental landscape in motion, with capital shifting east, South Africa exposed to geopolitical price shocks, and corporate sentiment in Kenya beginning to recover. The next watch points are completion of the Nedbank-NCBA transaction and whether rising Kenyan deal values attract sustained cross-border capital or prove cyclical.
