What changes: Sony’s reboot of Resident Evil is poised to deliver a major box office lift this weekend, projecting a $40M-$50M U.S. opening and roughly $31M internationally, for an estimated high-end global debut near $80M.
The film arrives after a summer that amassed $4.67 billion domestically, and follows a softer start to the fall for other releases. Practical Magic 2 failed to expand its core older-female audience because reviews landed at 38% and additions like Joey King and Maisie Williams did not draw younger viewers. By contrast, Zach Cregger’s take on Resident Evil arrives with broad critical goodwill, carrying a 96% certified fresh rating, the best for the franchise in its 24-year run.
If the film reaches around $80M worldwide it would outpace the global opening of Weapons, which began at $70M, and set a new benchmark for this Resident Evil iteration. The seven previous franchise entries have combined for more than $1.2 billion worldwide, while the 2010 entry Resident Evil: Afterlife holds the franchise domestic opening record with $26.6M.
Sony and its international partners have split territories, with Constantin handling German-speaking markets and Metropolitan covering French-speaking ones. Sony controls distribution in 58 of 62 offshore markets. Key windows still ahead include openings in Thailand, the CIS and South Africa next weekend, Japan on October 9, and a later release in China, where the franchise has historically performed well, 2016’s The Final Chapter closed to about $160M there.
Internationally, Sony expects roughly $23M-$24M in the opening frame, a result comparable to like-for-like starts on prior horror and genre titles. Domestically, the $75M production is booked at 3,000 locations and begins previews at 2 p.m. Thursday. Industry observers will be watching a second question beyond raw revenue, whether longtime video game fans will embrace Cregger’s fresh approach; he has publicly identified as an avid game fan and said he did not watch the earlier films while making this one.
Also opening this weekend is Vertical’s Sundance pickup The Weight, which will play in 1,504 North American theaters and begins previews at 7 p.m. Wednesday with a national Alamo Drafthouse simulcast and a following Q&A. Critics have rated The Weight 93% fresh.
What happens next: weekend grosses will reveal whether Cregger’s respectful reboot can expand the franchise’s audience beyond core gamers and horror devotees, and subsequent rollouts in Japan and China will determine how much upside remains for the title internationally.
