India’s headline growth is at risk of losing credibility after Subhash Chandra Garg, who served as finance secretary from 2017 to 2019, alleged the government reduced last year’s GDP by 6 trillion rupees, making the April-June quarter’s 7.8% print look stronger in year-on-year terms. Garg told CNBC the cut lowered the prior-year current-price GDP to 80 trillion rupees, so the latest quarter’s 88.27 trillion rupees compares more favorably.
The government’s chief economic advisor, V Anantha Nageshwaran, dismissed the assertion as "cherry-picking" and said the new figures reflect a change in base year to the financial year ending March 2023 and methodological revisions. Nageshwaran added some quarters can be "bumped up" while others are "bumped down" as part of standard statistical revisions, and urged focus on consistency. The finance ministry did not provide further comment, sharing only a link to Nageshwaran’s remarks.
Political opponents amplified Garg’s charge. The Indian National Congress said GDP over the last four years has been "revised down by 43 lakh crore ($455 billion)," calling the adjustments large corrections that remove previously counted goods and services. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal defended the figures, saying "India's 7.8% growth is a reality."
The controversy revisits longstanding concerns about India’s economic statistics. The International Monetary Fund gave India a "C grade" for data transparency last year and prompted a new statistical framework adopted in February to tackle issues such as an outdated base year and reliance on wholesale price indices and single deflation. Reema Bhattacharya of Verisk Maplecroft noted the data still leans heavily on formal corporate reporting while the informal sector must be estimated, a gap that fuels scepticism.
Economists are split on the technicalities. Some say Garg’s comparison conflates series with different base years and is therefore unsound, while others, including Anil Sood, warn past estimation errors matter because the new series revised earlier GDP and GVA numbers down. Standard Chartered’s Anubhuti Sahay argued the better methodology helps explain why the quarter looks stronger and cautioned that while the growth percentage can be debated, the number should not be dismissed outright.
Beyond methodological questions, the June quarter’s strength was driven by a sharp rise in investment and stronger exports, with household consumption improving only modestly. That composition prompted caution from academics such as Jaydeep Mukherjee, who called the pattern unsustainable given current geopolitical risks. Global brokerages Morgan Stanley and Citi expect growth of 7.3% for the 12 months ending March 2027, suggesting some softening ahead even as debate over the headline print continues.
